News

Preview: S14, Round Thirteen, Day Two

Friday 09th May 2008

It's Super Saturday and the spotlight turns to South Africa this weekend as jostling continues for play-off places in the 2008 Super 14 competition.

The Chiefs are the only New Zealand team in action in South Africa in this cut-throat week but there is enormous New Zealand and Australian interest on what transpires in the Round Thirteen match between the Stormers and Waratahs in Cape Town.

Another question asked by rugby fans on both sides of the Tasman is whether the Cheetahs will allow the Sharks to swallow them whole and emerge with maximum points and a high score to help their cause.

The Chiefs play the last-placed Lions in Johannesburg and coach Ian Foster will be hoping they won't throw away a winnable game, as they did against the Force in Perth last weekend.

While the Blues, Sharks and the Chiefs need a bonus point victory to help them along, the fact that either the Waratahs or Stormers aren't likely to progress on the points table gives them slightly more hope. All three teams' cause will be helped if the Waratahs win, in which case they all can skip past the Cape Town-based franchise if each score a win.

With the Crusaders (47 points) having secured a home semi-final, they'll be preparing their combinations for the play-offs against the Reds and easing Daniel Carter back into his pivotal role after a six-week absence through injury.

While the Highlanders have struggled with just two wins from 11 games this season, they will have made the desperate Blues wary of their capability with some close losses.

Highlanders v Blues
Carisbrook, Dunedin,19:35 (08:35 BST, 07:35 GMT)

After four straight defeats and the bye, the Blues revived their faint title hopes with a desperately-needed win over the Reds last week but face another sudden-death encounter to remain in the hunt.

A host of pundits wrote the Blues off after their narrow loss to the Crusaders but they stormed back into calculations with a morale-boosting four-try win.

Ultimately though the trifecta of losses to the other three Australian franchises looks set to have cost them a play-off berth if they lose their remaining two matches against the Highlanders and Hurricanes.

Even if they embark on a try-scoring bonanza in their two remaining games they are likely to just miss the cut.

The Highlanders have returned from South Africa and will have more to worry about than their jet lag when they face a desperate Blues outfit.

Conditions at Carisbrook are predicted to be cold and wet - as you'd expect - so the Blues' pursuit of a four-try bonus-point win could result in a mistake-laden match.

On the face of it, motivation levels for the game differ markedly between the teams, with the seventh-placed Blues still playing for survival while the twelfth-placed Highlanders ensured they will are two positions away from avoiding the wooden spoon with last week's 31-28 win over the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.

An upset win would steer the Highlanders clear out of wooden-spoon contention and, with a string of narrow losses, that would be the least they deserve from a frustrating 2008 campaign.

The Highlanders are growing as a team and would have learned a lot from their trip to South Africa, but ever since Isa Nacewa has moved to fly-half the Blues have looked more potent on attack.

The abrasive back row of the Blues should also win the battle at the breakdown, while an All Blacks front row should hand the Highlanders contingent a free lesson.

The north versus south grudge match is highlighted by the battle for the Gordon Hunter Memorial Trophy.

Gordon Hunter was a legendary coach of both franchises and the trophy was introduced in 2002 to be contested between the Blues and Highlanders each year.

The Blues will be conscious of their poor record at Carisbrook, having lost on four of their last five visits.

The match in 2006 was disastrous for the northerners, who lost 13-25 and lost playmaker Luke McAlister for more than a month after his jaw was fractured in a clash with opposite Nick Evans.

Super head to head: It took Blues coach David Nucifora the majority of the regular season but he finally discovered Taniela Moa is the right man for the number nine jersey. With all respect to Danny Lee, Moa's strength, sharp pass and running game is the best fit for the Blues. His battle at halfback with Jimmy Cowan should bring fireworks to the party.

Prediction: The Kiwi affair won't be for the faint hearted, but the Blues have much more to play for and should be good enough to take maximum points. The Blues to win by eleven points.

The teams:

Highlanders: 15 Paul Williams, 14 Glen Horton, 13 Aaron Bancroft, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Jimmy Cowan; 8 Craig Newby (c), 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Hoani MacDonald, 3 Clint Newland, 2 Jason MacDonald, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacements: 16 David Hall, 17 Chris King, 18 Isaac Ross, 19 Steven Setephano, 20 Toby Morland, 21 Daniel Bowden, 22 Niva Ta'auso.

Blues: 15 Nick Evans, 14 David Smith, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Isa Nacewa, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell (captain)/Kurtis Haiu, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock/Nick White.
Replacements: 16 Nick White/Tom McCartney, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Kurtis Haiu/Bryn Evans, 19 Justin Collins, 20 Danny Lee, 21 Isaia Toeava, 22 Ben Atiga.

Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand), Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Television match official: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)

Reds v Crusaders
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 19:40 (10:40 BST, 09:40 GMT)

After securing two tense wins in successive weeks the competition front-runners are the only team assured of a home play-off.

However their form has been faltering of late and Wallabies coach-to-be Robbie Deans will ask for more cohesion in their two remaining round robin games starting against the Reds.

While the Reds and Highlanders are languishing in the lower echelon of the competition table they both promise testing contests.

The Reds are out of the race for the semi-finals in eleventh spot having managed three wins and a draw this campaign - but their recent form has been very respectable.

Following their convincing upset victory over the Force in Round Ten, the Reds posted a competitive performance against semi-final contenders the Chiefs, and led the Blues late before going down 35-22 last start.

Deans has rested a host of top-line Crusaders and brought Daniel Carter back from injury via the bench.

But the Reds are taking no solace from the selections.

The Queenslanders have continued to show good signs under Phil Mooney but are a fair way away from putting it all together to challenge the competition pacesetters.

The return of Test full-back Chris Latham is a major boost to a young line-up still missing the likes of Sam Cordingley, Hugh McMeniman and Greg Holmes. Prop Rodney Blake is also missing due to suspension, forcing teenager Ben Daley to debut off the bench against Greg Somerville.

Super head to head: Chris Latham's return is sure to provide an emotional spark for the hosts. Every game that the Reds have won (or even drawn), have been largely influenced by Latham. It's hard to imagine another single player that has such a profound influence on their team's performance and results. His battle against fellow veteran of the number fifteen jersey Leon MacDonald will be an exciting prospect to watch.

Prediction: It's hard to see the Reds upsetting the top-of-the-table Crusaders unless Robbie Deans's men are complacent. The Crusaders already have a home semi final wrapped up, and the best for which the Reds can hope is that their visitors are already focusing on the play-offs. Somehow, we have a feeling they would have learnt from their lesson last year. The Crusaders to win by sixteen points.

The teams:

Reds: 15 Chris Latham, 14 Clinton Schifcofske, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Peter Hynes, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 David Croft, 6 Poutasi Luafutu, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Van Humphries, 3 Dayna Edwards, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Coutts.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Ed O'Donoghue, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Digby Ioane, 21 Brando Va'aulu, 22 Charlie Fetoai.

Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richard McCaw (c), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ross Filipo, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 George Whitelock, 20 Andrew Ellis, 21 Daniel Carter, 22 Caleb Ralph.

Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Touch judges: Petri Bosch (South Africa), Shaun Moore (Australia)
Television match official: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)
Assessor: Andrew Cole (Australia)

Sharks v Cheetahs
Absa Stadium, Durban, 15:00 (13:00 GMT)

While disappointing for most of their tour Down Under, the Sharks did show signs of a turn-around in pushing the tournament-leading Crusaders more than most teams have this season, particularly in Christchurch.

The Sharks pressed for much of the second half in that game, and it was just their finishing that let them down before they made a mistake going into the last ten minutes that the Crusaders, as is their wont, pounced on and turned into an eight point advantage that flattered the winners.

But while the Sharks may have felt heartened by their performance, they are heading into unchartered territory this weekend as winning is no longer enough for them if they want to qualify for the semifinals.

The Sharks management have acknowledged that they are going to have pick up bonus points in both their remaining fixtures, against the Cheetahs and the Chiefs, if they are going to stand a chance of going through. Even then, they have to rely on results going their way in matches between the other teams.

It's a massive ask for the Sharks in that they haven't enjoyed much success this season when it comes to bonus points, and it is one of the reasons why they have now fallen behind a team like the Stormers when they have recorded the same number of wins as the Cape franchise. Their only four try bonus so far was in the win over the Bulls, when three tries were scored in the last ten minutes.

So it goes without saying that the Sharks are going to have to create a lot more scoring opportunities than they have so far this season. Much may depend on how the Cheetahs approach the game. If they come to Durban in typical South African derby mode, and have forgotten their recent defeats, then it could be tough for the Sharks.

However if they arrive with the mindset that they want to play attacking rugby, then there should be opportunities for the Sharks as the Cheetahs defensive system often looked vulnerable this season, particularly against the Kiwi sides who have run the ball at them.

The Cheetahs, second last on the table, have scored 29 tries this season, more than any other South African team. And of all the South African franchises only the Lions have scored fewer tries than the Sharks. The Lions, who are last on the standings, stand at 18 and the Sharks at 20.

However, the main difference is in defence, where the Sharks, the Stormers and the Waratahs have conceded 18 tries each. Only the table-leading Crusaders have a better defence record. They have conceded a mere 14 tries.

The Cheetahs, on the other hand, have conceded 44 tries.

But the Super Rugby history between these two teams suggests Saturday's outcome will be anything but predictable.

The Sharks won comfortably in Bloemfontein last season after a couple of tries against the run of play, but in the only other Super Rugby fixture staged at Absa Stadium (in 2006), the Cheetahs took the spoils 27-26.

This was the year the Sharks were denied a semi-final spot on points-difference, and it could certainly be said that a modestly-talented Cheetahs team influenced their final table standing.

Will the Cheetahs have a similar say in 2008?

Super head to head: Sharks' star Ryan Kankowski has been the form number eight of the tournament while his opposite number Duanne Vermeulen has been the shining light in a grim campaign for the Cheetahs. It's going to be a battle royal between these two bright prospects on Saturday.

Prediction: The Sharks can't afford to sneak a win, a four try-display this Saturday is mandatory, as they may struggle to put four past the Chiefs in their final league match. The Sharks to bag a full house and win by five points.

Sharks: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Francois Steyn, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Rory Kockott, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 AJ Venter (c), 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johan Ackermann, 4 Albert van den Berg, 3 Brendon Botha, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Keegan Daniel, 21 Bradley Barritt, 22 Waylon Murray

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Eddie Fredericks, 13 JW Jonker, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Conrad Barnard, 9 Falie Oelschig, 8 Duanne Vermeulen, 7 Juan Smith (c), 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Barend Pieterse, 4 Rory Duncan, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Wian du Preez.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Bees Roux, 18 David de Villiers, 19 Hendro Scholtz, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Bevin Fortuin, 22 Hendrik Meyer.

Referee: Willie Roos (South Africa)
Touch judges: JC Fortuin (South Africa), Pro Legoete (South Africa)
Timekeeper: Neville Heilbron (South Africa)

Lions v Chiefs
Ellis Park, Johannesburg,17.05 (15.05 GMT)

The Chiefs are cursed! Having made just one semi-final in the Super 14's history the competitions perpetual slow-starters look set to miss the cut again.

In years to come coach Ian Foster will have nightmares of Sitiveni Sivivatu dropping the ball with the try line wide open and haunting images of Matt Giteau slotting over the match-winning penalty will forever be etched in the cow-bells conscious.

It's not all doom and gloom for the Chiefs just yet - but when retrospect is called on in months to come it is likely that night of self-destruction at Subiaco Oval will be at the forefront.

The Chiefs still have a simple equation - two wins in their remaining round-robin games will assure semi-final action.

Their last game against the Sharks looms as a virtual quarter-final but Absa Stadium is a cauldron where the Durban-based franchise is unbeaten this season.

Although the Ellis Park surface is tailored to the Chiefs' fast paced style and ability to strike from broken play, they might just stand the risk suffering another loss to end their semi-final aspirations for good.

But the Lions will need to play the game at a slow pace if they are to put the Chiefs under pressure on Saturday.

If you had to name two teams in the competition you don't want to have a helter-skelter match against - it's the Hurricanes and the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are a similar prototype to the Hurricanes, thriving off turnovers and favouring an open game. The Lions should have learnt from the Hurricanes clouting, and they must use this lesson to adopt a virtually opposite gameplan to the way the played last Saturday.

A slow, dour arm-wrestle of a game will do just fine for the Lions. They have shown attacking inclinations all season, which has been admirable, but they mustn't try match the Chiefs at their own game.

A more structured approach favouring the set-piece as a platform to attack will aid the Lions in gaining some sort of parity in the contest.

They have conceded 20 tries in four matches against Kiwi opposition this season - a statistic not to be proud of.

Against the New Zealanders you have to keep the structure and play in their faces. You can't give them space and if you don't put them under pressure they will come at you.

The Lions have a supposed gameplan but it is not being followed. The players must take responsibility for making the repetitive, blatantly obvious mistakes being made every week - which proves no learning is taking place whatsoever.

The 50/50 offloads and intricate moves the players have tried may look flashy, but simply doing the basics will provide better results.

Super head to head: Jaque Fourie makes his long awaited return to rugby at outside centre for the Lions, and after new Springbok coach Peter de Villiers' comments about form selections, he will know he cannot waste any time getting back to his best if he wants to be part of the series against Wales. The Chiefs will be in search of a bonus point from the first whistle (as they attempted against the Force), and an unstructured match will mean game-breakers Lelia Masaga, Sione Lauaki, and Mils Muliaina will be in their element.

Prediction: Now out of the top four, the Chiefs one-point loss to the Force could be significant at the end of the season but a bonus point win over the lacklustre Lions should steady the ship. The Chiefs to win by ten points.

The teams:

Lions: 15 Earl Rose, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Walter Venter, 11 Rayno Benjamin, 10 Jaco van Schalkwyk, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Joe van Niekerk, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (c), 5 Gerhard Mostert, 4 Dewald Senekal, 3 JC Janse van Rensburg, 2 Willie Wepener, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 Ross Geldenhuys, 18 Franco van der Merwe, 19 Wilhelm Koch, 20 Chris Jonck, 21 Jannie Boshoff, 22 Dusty Noble.

Chiefs: 15 Mils Muliaina (c), 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Dwayne Sweeney, 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jamie Nutbrown, 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Kevin O'Neill, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Ben Castle,2 Tom Willis, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 Simon Lemalu, 18 Jono Gibbes, 19 Faifili Levave, 20 David Bason, 21 Viliame Waqaseduadua, 22 Sosene Anesi.

Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Brett Bowden (Australia), Deon van Blommestein (South Africa)
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)

Stormers v Waratahs
Newlands, Cape Town, 19:10 (17:10 GMT)

Both fans of the Stormers and the Waratahs appear to be in agreement - this is not just the biggest match of the weekend, it may well be the big match of the season so far.

Certainly it shapes up as a quarter-final, with the winner in the pound seats, and the loser possibly dropping out of the race for a place in the play-offs.

The Waratahs are currently second on the standings and the Stormers are fourth, yet there is only two points separating them on the table.

Although the Waratahs are sitting comfortably in second spot, they could end up as low as seventh if they fall apart in the final two rounds.

And their fortnight before the finals is hardly a safe course. Their capitulation against the Bulls in Pretoria last Saturday has reopened doubts as to whether they have the attacking experience to safely negotiate the difficult South African leg of the Super 14.

Beating the Stormers at Newlands this weekend will be an even more difficult task than the one that confronted the Waratahs at Loftus Versfeld, because the Cape Town team is far more dangerous, quicker and more versatile than the Bulls. Stormers coach Rassie Erasmus is also the master of destabilising opponents.

In the end, the Waratahs' finals campaign could rest on their final-round match against the Reds in Brisbane on May 17.

And the Waratahs need no reminding that the Reds, a vastly superior brand to last year's model, always rise for Australian rugby's most bitter provincial match, and would love nothing better than humiliating their rivals by forcing them out of the finals.

If the Stormers win, they would move up to either second or third with just a final round away game left against the last placed Lions.

The Waratahs will provide the Stormers with their biggest challenge since they hosted the Hurricanes three weeks ago. In subsequent games, the Stormers have been off the pace, failing to take all of their attacking opportunities.

The Stormers have a responsibility to disrupt the Waratahs' attack this Saturday, but on this occasion, their attacking effort needs to mirror that of their defensive heroics.

Five consecutive victories fails to hide the Stormers' flagging form in the second period. Will the Waratahs be the first to punish the Cape side this Saturday or will the hosts finish with a flourish?

Take nothing away from what is a vastly improved side. They've come a long way since the dark days of 2006 and 2007. But what Erasmus's immediate success has created is a new perspective on the potential of the Stormers.

They should no longer be judged in comparison with previous seasons. They should be judged as play-off contenders, and let's admit it, serious title contenders.

The five straight wins and the fourth-place log position will confirm this statement. But what of the rugby? True, the Stormers have produced some fantastic tries that have many comparing them to the famous running side at the turn of the century. But are they the complete article?

Erasmus himself has admitted this is not the case.

Erasmus didn't mince his words after the 20-10 victory against the Brumbies. He said the Stormers were terrible in the second half. A look at their results this season will confirm the second stanza as an unprofitable one.

The Stormers fire then fade, which begs the question whether they have the mettle to win when the chips are down.

The first two matches against the Bulls and Sharks saw the Stormers ahead by 9-7 and 10-0 respectively. They ended up losing by 16-9 and 12-10.

They were up 25-13 at half-time against the Chiefs, but had to battle to stave off a late fightback. They were streets ahead of the Cheetahs at the break (24-3) but allowed the central franchise to score 19 points after half-time.

The Hurricanes rose from a 10-0 deficit to come within eight, while the Brumbies fought back from a 20-point gap. The Stormers failed to pick up the bonus point against the Highlanders, which against a struggling side is unforgivable given the Stormers' dominance in that fixture.

Through all of this, the Stormers have managed to maintain their winning form. But a 40-minute effort is simply not going to cut it against the Waratahs.

Super head to head: The responsibility resting on the shoulders of Stormers flanker Luke Watson is immense. Up against one of the game's finest in Phil Waugh (a week after battling the Brumbies' George Smith), he will be expected to challenge for that ball on the ground. Turnovers are ideal, but limiting the flow of quick ball to the dangerous Waratahs backline will be a basic requirement. Waugh's job is similar, and referee Lyndon Bray's interpretation of the laws will come under scrutiny when the two opensides go head to head.

Prediction: Momentum is a wonderful thing and in front of a packed house at Newlands it will take a quality performance to break the Stormers impressive unbeaten run. The Stormers to clinch a win by two points.

The teams:

Stormers: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Wylie Human, 13 Gcobani Bobo, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Sireli Naqelevuki, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Robbie Diack, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Luke Watson, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Brian Mujati.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Schalk Ferreira, 18 Ross Skeate, 19 Pieter Myburgh, 20 Bolla Conradie, 21 Tony Brown, 22 Dylan des Fountain.

Waratahs: 15 Lote Tuqiri, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Matt Carraro, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Dan Vickerman, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 David Lyons, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Sam Norton-Knight, 22 Timana Tahu.

Referee: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Brent Murray (New Zealand), Christie du Preez (South Africa)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
Assessor: Arrie Schoonwinkel (South Africa)
Timekeeper: Kat Swanepoel (South Africa)