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Preview: S14, Round Fourteen, Day Two

Friday 16th May 2008

Reds v 'Tahs: More than just a grudge match

It will be a case of "all or nothing" for the Waratahs, Stormers, Sharks and the Chiefs as they each make a final bid to qualify for the Super 14 semi-finals in the final weekend of round-robin action on Saturday.

The Crusaders are the only team in the top four who are safe, but the rest face the prospect of losing out on the play-off race if they slip up on the weekend.

The Crusaders, who have qualified for the play-offs for the tenth time in eleven years, are at home against the Highlanders in Christchurch. They have already set a new record for the most table points in a season, surpassing the mark of 51 they set in the 2002 Super 12 and 2006 Super 14.

Unlike the Crusaders, one side that will feel the pinch at the top is the Waratahs, who face the Reds in Brisbane for a crunch all-Aussie derby.

Currently lying third on 39 points, victory will be enough to secure a place in the semi-finals for the Waratahs, who have reached the play-offs twice in the last three seasons. However, if they lose, and the Stormers, Sharks and Blues succeed, they will be eliminated.

The Stormers, who have reached the semi-finals twice before, are currently in fourth place with 37 points. They travel to Johannesburg to face the cellar-dwelling Lions at Ellis Park and must win the match with a bonus point to remain in contention.

The Bulls then travel to Bloemfontein where nothing but pride will be at stake against the Cheetahs and finally, the Sharks host the Chiefs at the Absa Stadium in Durban.

Playing in the final fixture of the weekend is in the Sharks favour as they will know exactly what they need to do to secure a place in the last four.

The Chiefs have an outside chance of making it and will be tough to overcome. The Sharks also need to play for the bonus point and will have to find their rhythm quickly if they aim to succeed.

Crusaders v Highlanders
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 19:35 (07:35 GMT)

Sitting up there alone at the top of the table on 52 points, daylight between them and that distant chasing horde of would-be challengers, the Crusaders would be in their comfort zone as the round-robin draws to a close.

They can't be caught for top spot, which means they're not going anywhere from now until it all comes to an end with the 12th-placed Highlanders the only team standing in their way.

They should go out there on their home track on Saturday and clean the clocks of the downtrodden Highlanders.

Yes, the Crusaders are favourites; yes, the Crusaders should win. It's just about how they go about doing it against a team that will want to finish their season on a high - and the Highlanders have come close on a lot of occasions.

Unfortunately for the Highlanders, it simply isn't in the make-up of the Crusaders to take anyone lightly, or anything easy.

It's not the Crusaders' way and they haven't created success over the years through just making an appearance - they've had to perform well too.

The other thing is if you start to be complacent in this competition, a five per cent difference in attitude can be a difference of 20 or 30 points on you.

Last week was a timely reminder that this team, looking to farewell Super Rugby's greatest coach Robbie Deans in the ultimate fashion, doesn't just have to turn up to win.

The Crusaders trailed by 13 points with not much more than a quarter of an hour left and had to come home with a wet sail to run down the Reds 27-21. This was only after a handful of their top guns like Ali Williams, Dan Carter, Corey Flynn, Andrew Ellis and Ben Franks were called from the bench to save some blushes.

On the other end of the scale, a desperate lack of experience is the fatal flaw at this level for the Highlanders.

The harsh reality is that more battle-hardened players might have made life desperately difficult for the Blues last week and again this week against the six-time Super Rugby champs.

For the Highlanders, Saturday's southern derby against the Crusaders will probably add to an already humiliating Super 14 rugby record.

Spare a thought for coach Glenn Moore though.

Like the majority in his team, Moore's been a new kid on the block, a first-time coach at Super Rugby level who was also restricted to selecting home-grown or locally-based players after numerous defections to overseas clubs.

The best he could do to obtain players from outside the franchise area was resorting to the draft - a list of players excess to other franchise needs.

Without experience in key positions, the Highlanders were always going to struggle in the competition this season.

With the characters of true southern man, Moore got on with the job, rebuilding the team from near scratch.

Though they lost 10 of their 12 matches before their final game of the season in Christchurch on Saturday, the only ones they lost by significant margins were to the Chiefs (24-39) and Bulls (17-47). The others have been by 10 points or fewer and in most cases through poor goal-kicking or giving up points late in the matches.

Super head to head: The most potent weapon in the Highlanders' side has been wing Fetu'u Vainikolo. Crusaders rookie Kade Poki has had a dream debut season for the red and black machine, and will want to continue his good run with another telling performance against his opposite number. Lock Ali Williams has been highly competitive since making his move down south from the Blues, an aerial battle with the eye-catching Tom Donnelly is also set to turn some heads.

Prediction: A long season will be ended on Saturday for the Highlanders by an uncompromising Crusaders side. Deans will be demanding a much more superior effort and the Highlanders are unfortunate in being in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Crusaders to win by eighteen points.

The teams:

Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald; 14 Kade Poki, 13 Caleb Ralph, 12 Stephen Brett, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Reuben Thorne, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Kieran Read, 19 Nasi Manu, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Tim Bateman, 22 Casey Laulala.

Highlanders: 15 Mike Delany, 14 Paul Williams, 13 Niva Ta'auso, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Daniel Bowden, 9 Toby Morland, 8 Craig Newby (c), 7 Tim Boys, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Hayden Triggs, 3 Clint Newland, 2 David Hall, 1 Chris King.
Replacements: 16 Jason Macdonald, 17 Keith Cameron, 18 Isaac Ross, 19 George Naoupu, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Bancroft, 22 Glen Horton.

Referee: Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand), Josh Noonan (New Zealand)
Television match official: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Assessor: Kim Eichmann (New Zealand)

Reds v Waratahs
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 19:40 (09:40 GMT)

The semi-final bound Waratahs will this week be forced to defend their reputation as the "derby kings" of Australian rugby when they meet the Reds in Brisbane.

The Waratahs face a short turnaround to prepare for the Round Fourteen encounter on Saturday, and will have to do more than deal with the hyped-up Queenslanders.

The fatigue resulting from two bruising games against the Stormers and the Bulls in Pretoria last Saturday will play a role.

On top of that they need to contend with the inevitable jet leg, and the knowledge that the game will play an integral role in securing a place in the semi-finals.

The Waratahs will also have to overcome an ordinary record on the road to prevail on Saturday in the cauldron that is Suncorp Stadium.

They owe their position in the top four to their outstanding record at home, winning all six games at the Sydney Football Stadium: against the Hurricanes, Brumbies, Cheetahs, Blues, Lions and Sharks.

But they have won only two of their six games away from home: against the Highlanders in Dunedin and a fortuitous victory over Western Force in Perth.

The Waratahs have dropped away games to the Chiefs, Crusaders and Bulls and drawn with the Stormers.

Their problems with playing away will be underlined by the fact they have only beaten the Reds once in Brisbane in Super Rugby.

However, the side's pride in their impeccable record in local derbies during the five-year tenure of head coach Ewen McKenzie will reinforce their will to win.

The Waratahs have faced plenty of scrutiny in recent years - much of it critical until the last few weeks. What has slipped below the radar, though, is that the Sydney-based franchise have lost only two and drawn one of 14 games against Australian sides since McKenzie took over from Bob Dwyer in 2004.

With McKenzie leaving New South Wales at season's end, his side will be keen for him to bow out with a final derby success.

Saturday's game against the Reds, in which several Waratahs, including Dan Vickerman and David Lyons, will play their last derby before heading overseas, could even signify a changing of the guard.

But the ability of the Waratahs to fend off their traditional foes now hinges on self-belief.

The Waratahs enter the final round of the regular season in third spot, while the young Reds are languishing in 11th spot, a whopping 22 points behind their interstate rivals.

But despite their vastly different positions on the ladder and the fact the Reds have lost their previous three matches, the Waratahs have got their work cut out for them this weekend.

The Reds have gelled and played fantastic rugby on the weekend against the Crusaders so as a group, the Waratahs certainly have got to be prepared for what's going to be a massive game for both teams.

The Reds campaign is simple - beat the Waratahs and ruin their season.

It doesn't matter that the Reds will finish near the bottom of the Super 14 table. If they can humiliate the Waratahs, their year will be made, and be described as an outright success.

But the Reds' biggest test on Saturday will be to keep 15 players on the field for the full 80 minutes.

Courageous as their effort was against the Crusaders, when they made 195 tackles to the Crusaders' 84 yet still maintained a higher tackle efficiency rate, the Reds found themselves fielding rugby league numbers, 13, against arguably the best provincial XV in world rugby at one point, thanks to their own indiscipline.

The Reds also enter their final match of the campaign without veteran full-back Chris Latham after the 32-year-old tore his pectoral muscle in his side's narrow defeat at the hands of the Crusaders last start.

The Reds' farewells of Sam Cordingley (to Grenoble), David Croft (retirement), Stephen Moore (to Brumbies) and what should have been one for Chris Latham (to Worcester) should be added motivation to win though.

Super head to head: It is a derby with plenty of spice, even hotter with the inclusion of former Waratahs centre Morgan Turinui - who was in the Waratahs' sides that made the final in 2005 and semi-finals in 2006 - now playing for the Reds. Turinui was widely criticised following a slow start to the season but the robust centre has been the Reds' form player in recent weeks. The oft-maligned 26-year-old has recaptured his ability to cut through defences in the midfield and could come back to haunt his former team-mates on Saturday.

Prediction: The Waratahs should have enough firepower and experience to account for a young but much improved Reds outfit. And with the Waratahs' semi-final hopes riding on the result, anything can and probably will happen. The Waratahs to win by four points.

The teams:

Reds: 15 Clinton Schifcofske, 14 Caleb Brown, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Peter Hynes, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 David Croft, 6 Poutasi Luafutu, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Van Humphries, 3 Dayna Edwards, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Coutts.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Ed O'Donoghue, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Andrew Walker, 22 Charlie Fetoai.

Waratahs: tbc

Referee: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Touch judges: James Leckie (Australia), Damian Mitchelmore (Australia)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)
Assessor: Wayne Erickson (Australia)

Lions v Stormers
Ellis Park, Johannesburg, 15:00 (13:00 GMT)

Positions on the Super 14 table mean nothing in this match as the bottom-placed Lions prepare to avoid the wooden spoon and spoil the Stormers' chances of making the last four.

The Lions come into this game on the back of a great win against the Chiefs, while the Stormers only just managed a draw against the Waratahs - ending a six-game winning streak.

The Stormers' performances have regressed badly in the last two weeks, and only the conditions saved them from defeat against the Waratahs last weekend.

They're clearly missing Schalk Burger in the same way that side of 1999 missed Bob Skinstad when was injured.

What's more, Luke Watson just hasn't shown up in the last couple of matches. If he manages to find some form against the Lions the Stormers' chance of victory will be significantly improved.

But before the game kicks off, the Stormers will know what's required to reach the semi-finals and it won't take a rocket scientist to figure out that nothing less than four tries is the order of the day.

A winning platform provided by the forwards is mandatory. Once this is established, the Stormers can pursue the bonus point in order to avoid any heartbreaking play-off exclusions.

But the second-half slump typical of the Stormers' recent performances suggests the Cape side lacks the mental strength to finish teams off. They also haven't scored four tries since beating the Cheetahs in Round Nine, and have generally struggled to score points in the second half.

Stormers coach Rassie Erasmus denied earlier this week that his team's second half performances have been poor, explaining the stats of the first and second halves are very similar.

He did admit though that the Lions have been better in the second half this season and despite their poor record they are a side that fights to the death.

They will not be taken lightly and the Stormers will need to maintain their intensity for the full 80 minutes.

The Stormers also should not expect any favours when they face the Lions who will want to show that last week's 33-17 victory over the Chiefs was no fluke.

By beating the New Zealanders, captain Cobus Grobbelaar and his team recorded only their second win of the year but they brought to an end a long winless period. Their only other victory was over the Cheetahs back in February.

The manner in which they went about beating the Chiefs last week was very impressive and the scoreline didn't truly reflect their complete dominance because they took their foot off the pedal in the latter stages of the match.

The Lions are certainly not going to "throw" the match to ensure a South African team will be involved in the play-offs either. The Stormers will have to earn every point they need to reach their target.

They will want to finish the competition on a high by beating one of the top teams. It's going to be a titanic battle and a lot of pride is at stake.

Added to the mere points on offer, the home side will want to show up the former Lions players in the Stormers line-up. Gcobani Bobo, Ricky January, Brian Mujati, Conrad Jantjes, Wylie Human and Schalk Brits have all worn the white and red, and that in itself will make this derby even more competitive.

Ellis Park, where only 4,500 spectators watched the Lions break their long drought by beating the Chiefs last weekend, should be well-populated on Saturday.

Super head to head: Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie have been centre partners in 14 Test matches for South Africa. Now they are about to test each other to the limits in a Super 14 rugby battle. De Villiers' leadership will play a crucial role and the Stormers' playmaker will need to keep his team composed and focused on the job at hand. Fourie, back in the Lions side after a long spell on the injury list, and Stormers captain De Villiers will mark each other in what is expected to be a mouth-watering confrontation. Fourie is a world-class player. He runs good lines, can organise the defence and adds a lot of value to any team. However the match will, for all the expected running, be decided up front - and in the front row, at that, where Springbok Heinke van der Merwe will be up against former team-mate and Bok hopeful Brian Mujati, who is back in his preferred position at tighthead.

Prediction: With a semi-final place riding on the outcome and having put so much effort into the season, it is difficult to see the Stormers letting things slip at this stage. All the form is with the Stormers who have deserved their placing of fourth in the competition. The Stormers to win by ten points.

The teams:

Lions: 15 Earl Rose, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Walter Venter, 11 Ryno Benjamin, 10 Jaco van Schalkwyk, 9 Chris Jonck, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Joe van Niekerk, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (c), 5 Gerhard Mostert, 4 Dewald Senekal, 3 JC Janse van Rensburg, 2 Willie Wepener, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 Ross Geldenhuys, 18 Franco van der Merwe, 19 Wilhelm Koch, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Jannie Boshoff, 22 Dusty Noble.

Stormers: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Wylie Human, 13 Gcobani Bobo, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Sireli Naqelevuki, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Luke Watson, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Pieter Myburgh, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Schalk Ferreira.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Brok Harris, 18 Ross Skeate, 19 Robbie Diack, 20 Bolla Conradie, 21 Tony Brown, 22 Dylan des Fountain.

Referee: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Touch judges: Mark Lawrence (South Africa), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)
Assessor: Banks Yantolo (South Africa)
Timekeeper: Kat Swanepoel (South Africa)

Cheetahs v Bulls
Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein, 17:00 (15:00 GMT)

Another all-South African affair and there's nothing but pride to play for.

They may be two of the also-rans of the competition but the Cheetahs and Bulls won't give an inch in their final game of the season.

The Cheetahs have been competitive at times this season, losing a half dozen games by less than six points, but another loss here might earn them the wooden spoon if the Lions are able to upset the Stormers earlier.

The Cheetahs have shown a willingness to move the ball under captain Juan Smith, but lack of execution has denied it more points.

The Cheetahs held the Sharks for three quarters of the match, before succumbing to a couple of late tries in another heartbreaking loss last week and will be equally competitive against the Bulls.

A belated Bulls resurgence last week salvaged something from a disappointing season for the 2007 champions and such a classy team should have done better.

The Bulls are coming off three wins on the trot but they've left their run too late and have no chance of making the semis.

They've been justifiably criticised for their Super 14 performances, but also deserve recognition for the way the Bulls got up after five consecutive defeats.

The loss against the Hurricanes seems to have been the turning point and the Bulls have shown since, with victories over the Highlanders, the Waratahs and the Brumbies, there is still much fire and pride left in them.

The Bulls will want to finish the Super 14 season in such a way that people would remember why they had been, in 2007, the first South African team to win the competition.

A fourth successive win for the Bulls this weekend could earn them back the respect they lost.

Super head to head: A fascinating battle awaits us at the breakdown. Along with Juan Smith, fellow loose forwards Heinrich Brussow and Duanne Vermeulen have given it their all in a losing cause this year. Expect fireworks from Pierre Spies, Pedrie Wannenburg and Deon Stegmann with the battle for ball retention set to reach boiling point.

Prediction: The Bulls have had their problems this year but last week's win may be just the fillip they need to finish the season with a hiss and a roar. The Bulls to win by eight points.

The teams:

Cheetahs: 15 Bevin Fortuin, 14 Eddie Fredericks, 13 Hendrik Meyer, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Tewis de Bruyn, 9 , 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussouw, 5 Barend Pieterse, 4 Rory Duncan, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Adriaan Strauss , 1 Wian du Preez.
Replacements: 16 Hans van Dyk, 17 Bees Roux, 18 David de Villiers, 19 Hendro Scholtz, 20 Conrad Barnard, 21 JW Jonker, 22 Hennie Daniller.

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JP Nel, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez (c), 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Pedrie Wannenburg, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Derick Kuün, 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Rayno Gerber, 18 Jaco Engels, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Francois Hougaard, 21 Burton Francis/Francois Brummer, 22 Hilton Lobberts.

Referee: Phillip Bosch (South Africa)
Touch judges: Willie Roos (South Africa), Joey Salmans (South Africa)
Television match official: Michael Cupido (South Africa)

Sharks v Chiefs
Absa Stadium, Durban, 19.10 (17.10)

By the time they run out at Absa Stadium on Saturday, the Sharks will know exactly what is needed to reach the semi-final when they take on the Chiefs.

The Stormers' superior points difference (49 as opposed to the Sharks' 40) sees them edge out the Sharks to the final play-off berth, but the Lions will provide stern opposition for the Cape Town boys in the afternoon fixture and Sharks fans will be hoping they stumble or are at least denied a bonus point.

The Chiefs arrive in Durban off the back of a 33-27 defeat against the Lions. The scoreline flattered the Hamilton franchise, as they grabbed two late consolation tries when the Lions' thoughts had already turned to the post-match celebratory beers.

The Chiefs have had an up-and-down season this year. They lost three of their first five games, before winning five on the trot. Two subsequent losses mean their semi-final aspirations are hanging by a thread.

This is the twelfth year of Super Rugby and likely the eleventh time the Chiefs haven't reached the semi-finals, a pitiful return for long-suffering fans.

Every other New Zealand team has made the final at least once and the semi-finals at least four times, those minimum achievements shared by both the Highlanders and Hurricanes.

The benchmark Crusaders finished dead last in the inaugural year of Super 12 in 1996 but have since been to the semi-finals nine times and the final eight times, winning the title six times. The Blues have won three titles from five visits to the semi-finals and four to the final.

In Ian Foster's first season in charge of the Chiefs in 2004 he took them to a fourth-placed finish and their only trip to the play-offs, losing heavily to the Brumbies in a semi-final clash in Canberra. But it has been sixth, seventh, sixth since and this year looks like being something similar.

Again the Chiefs have flattered to deceive, winning five games in a row in the middle of the season, including the only defeat inflicted on the top-of-the-table Crusaders so far this year, to race into the top four and challenge strongly for another trip to the semis.

But as soon as they headed offshore for their final three games it all unravelled, losing to the ninth-placed Force and last-placed Lions to leave them with that all-too-familiar scenario - a mathematical chance of reaching the play-offs.

Injuries certainly have played their part and the Chiefs have in recent seasons been hit harder than many other teams.

What those injuries have exposed is a continuing lack of depth at this level. Lose the likes of Sitiveni Sivivatu, Sione Lauaki, Tom Willis and Richard Kahui and the standard of decision-making drops alarmingly, as does the composure.

The Sharks must not see the shock result against the Lions as being indicative of the standard of opposition they will face this Saturday and should be braced for an examination of note from one of the tournament's most potent attacking units (the Chiefs' 41 tries places them second in the try scoring stakes) - especially since they still have an outside chance of making the play-offs.

The Chiefs are a dynamic side who are capable of really hurting you when they're firing. They're solid at the set phases, they have some powerful ball-carriers and are a massive threat from broken field or turnover ball.

The Sharks found some attacking form in their victory over the Cheetahs, running in five tries. They've struggled in this facet of play, having crossed the chalk on just 20 occasions (the third least in the tournament) prior to the Round Thirteen fixture on Saturday.

That massacre of the Cheetahs will have boosted their collective self-confidence significantly but regression in this regard will cost them dearly against the Chiefs.

The New Zealanders, while often irresistible on attack, have been poor defensively, which bodes well for the Sharks. Their line has been breached 41 times, with only the Bulls and Cheetahs having conceded more.

Defensively the Sharks know they have to be solid because every point scored will affect their points difference and ultimately that could decide whether Dick Muir's troops progress or not.

The Sharks certainly can't afford soft tries and ill-discipline - which seems to have been worked on.

Super head to head: Sharks scrum-half cum fly-half Ruan Pienaar will be entrusted with running the show again at number ten for the Sharks' vital Super 14 showdown with the Chiefs. Pienaar's opposite number on Saturday, Stephen Donald, is the tournament's highest points-scorer this year. He has scored 143 points and his being mentioned as a possible All Black candidate with the departure of Nick Evans and possibly Dan Carter at the end of the year.

Prediction: The clock has ticked down on a gallant Chiefs campaign. They face a seemingly insurmountable task to get over this one against a Sharks side with just as much, if not more, to play for in front of their home fans. The Sharks to win by nine points.

The teams:

Sharks: tbc

Chiefs: 15 Sosene Anesi, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Mils Muliaina (c), 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu/Viliame Waqaseduadua, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Sione Lauaki/Hayden Hopgood/Faifili Levave, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Kevin O'Neill, 4 Jono Gibbes, 3 Ben Castle, 2 Tom Willis, 1 Aled de Malmanche.
Replacements: 16 John Paeranga, 17 Nathan White, 18 Toby Lynn, 19 Sione Lauaki/Hayden Hopgood/Faifili Levave, 20 Jamie Nutbrown, 21 Dwayne Sweeney, 22 Viliame Waqaseduadua/Murray Williams.

Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Brett Bowden (Australia), Pro Legoete (South Africa)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)