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Preview: New Zealand v Ireland

Friday 06th June 2008

Conrad Smith: Racing to prove a point

Ireland rock up to Wellington on Saturday, with a familiar-looking team fired up and ready to take on a new-look New Zealand and re-discover both themselves, and their direction. Beating the All Blacks for the first time ever is the challenge on top of all that!

It's going to be tough going. Having fallen stale under former coach Eddie O'Sullivan and weathered the disappointment of the Rugby World Cup, the squad is now under transitional management before Declan Kidney takes over, and has been hit with the usual bout of injuries and dramas in the build-up to the Tests.

New Zealand are also in a transitional phase, but theirs is confined to the playing staff rather than the coaching. Only six of the players who lost the World Cup quarter-final last year are in the starting XV, and ten of the squad have left the country. There's an old schoolmaster in charge, but a fresh batch of pupils for the coming semester.

It's going to be interesting to see if that plays into Henry's hands or not. Certainly the exodus of players has made the potentialy tricky job of re-building post-RWC disaster a heck of a lot easier for Henry. The tough decisions of who to retain and who to discard have effectively been made for him, even if the choices are probably not exactly what he might have had in mind. The loss of Jerry Collins and Carl Hayman are body blows to the pack, and you'd think he might have liked to enjoy the options of Nick Evans or Dan Carter at fly-half.

But the team he has assembled is by and large a form team from the Super 14. It's still not as if he is particularly restricted in choice either: it's a brave man who opts to leave out Chris Masoe for example.

This time though, the pressure is on. Having had the privilege - much as Sir Clive Woodward had in 2003 - of reaping the rewards offered by a settled team that could pretty much pick itself and play itself, this new side is going to need a fair bit more tactical direction to start with and there is a good deal of scepticism in the New Zealand air as to whether Henry and his sidekicks still possess the relevant je ne sais quoi.

Sticking with the 'tried and trusted' combinations all over the park - two Hurricanes centres, two Crusaders half-backs, two Crusaders locks, two Chiefs in the back three, two Hurricanes in the front row - will play into his hands well enough and there is balance in the back row: the running of Jerome Kaino, the ubiquitous presence of Richie McCaw and the solidity of Rodney So'oialo. Where the winds of change have blown, it has at least been a warm zephyr rather than a destructive hurricane.

Ireland's team still has a settled look about it, but even without O'Sullivan there is an air of tiredness hanging over it. Munster's pack is still Ireland's first choice, bar Jamie Heaslip at number eight, but there probably needs to be a degree more sophistication to overcome New Zealand than there was to overcome Toulouse.

Outside the pack, it is high time for Tommy Bowe to deliver, and the injury to Luke Fitzgerald has presented Paddy Wallace with an unwelcome challenge of both playing out of position and having to mark Ma'a Nonu, who is in fine form. Eoin Reddan can provide a spark from scrum-half, but there are still doubts about the development of his relationship with Ronan O'Gara.

If this tour had been under Kidney's direction, we might be saying different. Michael Bradley's task is unenviable: lead a team awaiting their new leader through a Test against New Zealand, in New Zealand. He will do his best, but while Ireland remain in limbo they will not be able to find the necessary direction to take on a New Zealand team heading through its own first stages of development.

Ones to watch:

For New Zealand: Conrad Smith has a fair bit to prove. Graham Henry has ostensibly picked him on the back of Ma'a Nonu's selection as a part of his 'tried and trusted combinations' policy, for Smith was not the form centre of the Super 14. There is no doubting his talent though, and perhaps he can prove himself on the bigger stage.

For Ireland: Donncha O'Callaghan rises and rises to prominence as Paul O'Connell's magnificence ebbs away to mere normality, and with a dynamite duo of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn awaiting, O'Callaghan's leadership-by-example skills will be put to the fullest of tests

Head to head: Paddy Wallace v Ma'a Nonu. Wallace has been drafted in out of position, and concedes some 13kg of weight to New Zealand's most destructive runner. Doubtless Graham Henry will have targeted this as a weak spot in the line, but if Wallace can punch above his weight, Nonu's game is not above disruption. If Nonu gets the upper hand, Ireland are in serious trouble.

Previous results:

2006: New Zealand won 27-17 in Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 34-23 in Hamilton
2005: New Zealand won 45-7 in Dublin
2002: New Zealand won 40-8 in Auckland
2002: New Zealand won 15-6 in Dunedin
2001: New Zealand won 40-29 in Dublin
1997: New Zealand won 63-15 in Dublin
1995: New Zealand won 43-19 in Johannesburg (RWC)
1992: New Zealand won 59-6 in Christchurch
1992: New Zealand won 24-21 in Dunedin

Prediction: Be they old faces or new, New Zealand's is a team simply stuffed with talent, relative freshness, and form players out to prove a point in their new roles. We think they might click, and run up a big score. New Zealand by 23 points.

The teams:

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Anthony Tuitavake, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Rodney So'oialo, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 John Afoa, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Neemia Tialata.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Schwalger, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Leon MacDonald.

Ireland: 15 Robert Kearney, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Tommy Bowe, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Denis Leamy, 5 Donncha O'Callaghan, 4 Paul O'Connell, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Rory Best, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Mick O'Driscoll, 19 Shane Jennings, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Geordan Murphy, 22 Girvan Dempsey.

Date: Saturday, June 7
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Weather: Showers, strong north-westerly wind, 8�C
Referee: Chris White (England)
Touch judges: Nigel Owens (Wales), Matt Goddard (Australia)
Television match official: Christophe Berdos (France)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)