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Preview: New Zealand v South Africa

Friday 04th July 2008

'It's not that hard, Rodney': Graham Henry assures his new captain that Richie McCaw is replaceable

As an indicator of both global ills and South Africa's suffering: the last time the Boks won in New Zealand, a litre of petrol in SA cost ZAR 2.26. Three days before this Test, the price went up to ZAR 12, give or take a few cents. It's not just the rugby public that is suffering in South Africa.

Two hours before Australia and France play the last ever 80 minutes of non-ELV rugby, the Springboks will take the field under the ELVs in Wellington searching for their first win in the land of the long white cloud for ten long years.

Their last win was in this very city in 1998, if not this very same ground. The Westpac Stadium is a little grander than the old Athletic Park and doesn't sway in the wind so much, which is fortunate given that the forecast is for all sorts of meteorological misery to descend upon the windy city this weekend.

That 1998 win was founded on a physicality to the Bok side which New Zealand's artistes of the time simply couldn't cope with. Pieter Rossouw scored the crucial try, but it was the 10-12-13 trio of Henry Honiball, Pieter Muller and Andre Snyman who did the damage - those three behind the bruising pack. In that year, South Africa won all four of their matches, while New Zealand failed to win one. It was a bizarre reversal of fortune, it's never been repeated.

But enough of such nostalgia. New Zealand have, by and large, toughened up since then. They have won the Tri-Nations six out of nine times since, including the last clean sweep in 2003. They have won 45 out of 51 tests since the 2003 Rugby World Cup. In fact, the only thing South Africa have won that New Zealand have not since the 2003 Rugby World Cup, is the 2007 Rugby World Cup. It's a lovely thing to have, but the gloating will ring a little hollow if the All Blacks stuff the Boks on Saturday.

As the grimness of post-RWC euphoria sets in, scepticism mounts in SA over the new coach and his new team. The difficulty in dispatching Wales in the second Test, the miserable display against Italy's second team, and a raft of head-shaking selections have a hitherto breast-beating public instead pounding their heads in frustration and bemusement. Obviously the only way is down for a coach taking over a team that has just won the World Cup, but there is only so far down you can reasonably go, and it is De Villiers' tricky task to manage that.

He might get lucky. The Wellington weather is expected to greet the players with the same icy damp blast that had Brian O'Driscoll turning blue in his post-match interview a month ago, rendering open and coherent rugby tricky, and making a low-scoring game likely. When it comes to a muddy slugfest, the Boks are usually just as big and ugly as the next team, and the new All Blacks are not quite as brutish as the ones of yesteryear.

So what De Villiers is doing in picking lightweight whippersnappers like Adi Jacobs in the centre, Odwa Ndungane on the wing and - compared to Pierre Spies - Joe van Niekerk at number eight, is anyone's guess. Obviously the XV has been picked to do a job, and the selection of those players indicates that that job is running around into space a lot and playing hot potato with the ball, but whether the weather will leave them with that job to do is a moot point.

New Zealand were supposed to be in limbo a month ago, burned by the disappearance of many of their finest to northern shores in search of life-enriching experience (cynics point out that most of them went just for the enriching). Yet the phoenix team that has arisen from the post-RWC flames already looks startlingly together, in sync, and with three good wins under its belt, confident.

Competition is a different matter to the June internationals, but the All Blacks were so good at creating space for their runners even under June's old rules, that the likelihood is they will be devastating in the new space afforded to them by the new rules.

Balance is all over the team. In the middle, Ma'a Nonu punches the holes, Conrad Smith glides through them. A tighter five you could not wish to see. The back three is possessed of a ludicrous abundance of pace and guile. The back row has a wrecking ball in Jerome Kaino, intelligence in Adam Thomson, and diamond-solid leadership in Rodney So'oialo. And do we really need to tell you what Dan Carter can do? Only the line-out remains a question mark, with Andrew Hore not as reliable as a Test hooker should be and the Smit-Matfield-Botha combination still dominating the international airspace.

Old rules gone, new rules in. The same with the players. But New Zealand are still hot favourites for pretty much every match/tournament going bar the World Cup. Changing that is going to be a much harder task than changing the face of the game, apparently.

Ones to watch:

For New Zealand: Rodney So'oialo must now add All Black leadership to his array of skills. Whether that will impact on his game remains to be seen, but he is literally filling the shoes of Richie McCaw, both at openside and with the armband. There's his yardstick, how will he measure up?

For South Africa: Joe van Niekerk has been the big talking point since his surprise selection on Thursday, but he has earned his selection after a long time in the wilderness through some hard graft in a losing cause for the Lions this year. His impact on games may have been lessened by his appearance for a team that spent long periods of this season on the back foot, but that will change on Saturday. What can he do going forward?

Head to head: Conrad Smith v Adi Jacobs. Jacobs is another of the selections that has given the South African public butterflies, with continuous questions being asked of his defence. Smith also has his fair share of detractors in New Zealand with many saying he does not have the necessary punch for his position, although superlative performances in the June Tests have allayed those fears initially. Both men with points to prove.

Recent results:

2007 New Zealand won 33-6 in Christchurch
2007 New Zealand won 26-21 in Durban
2006 South Africa won 21-20 in Rustenburg
2006 New Zealand won 45-26 in Pretoria
2006 New Zealand won 35-17 in Wellington
2005 New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2005 South Africa won 22-16 in Cape Town
2004 South Africa won 40-26 in Johannesburg
2004 New Zealand won 23-21 in Christchurch
2003 New Zealand won 29-9 in Sydney (RWC)
2003 New Zealand won 19-11 in Dunedin
2003 New Zealand won 52-16 in Pretoria
2002 New Zealand won 30-23 in Durban
2002 New Zealand won 41-20 in Wellington
2001 New Zealand won 26-15 in Auckland
2001 New Zealand won 12-3 in Cape Town
2000 South Africa won 46-40 in Johannesburg
2000 New Zealand won 25-12 in Christchurch

Prediction: It's difficult to see how South Africa's game-plan will come off, especially in the wet. There are just too many things that can go wrong, and if ever there was a team to exploit it... New Zealand by 15 points.

The teams:

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Rodney So'oialo (c), 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Sione Lauaki, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Leon MacDonald.

South Africa: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Enrico Januarie, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Brian Mujati, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Bolla Conradie, 21 Francois Steyn, 22 Percy Montgomery.

Date: Saturday 5 July, 2008
Kick-off: 19:35 (08:35 BST)
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Weather: Strong northerly wind, 5°C and falling, and with a wind chill factor, and sleet. Yuk. Visibility is expected to be very good though!
Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Matt Goddard, James Leckie (Australia)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)
Assessor: Michel Lamoulie (IRB)

By Danny Stephens