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Preview: Australia v New Zealand

Friday 25th July 2008

Clash of the titans: Henry versus Deans

At last! Ever since the World Cup, or more specifically, ever since the NZRU decided that the World Cup failure was not down to the coaches, Graham Henry and Robbie Deans have been on a collision course.

Sport can be pretty cruel like that. Someone's decision will be - in their eyes - vindicated on Saturday, with those in the other camp left subject to the hysterical rubbing of egg on face that the sporting media so enjoys. Newspapers on Sunday will be full of 'told you so' crowing, either directed at the NZRU who retained Henry in the face of public opinion, or at those who most vociferously campaigned for Deans' promotion and Henry's ejection.

Neither coach has mis-fielded a question about his counterpart this week, neither has trumpeted over-confidence, neither has pointed out any flaws in the opposition. It has been left to the assistants and the pundits to try and needle up the atmosphere, with Steve Hansen accusing the Wallabies of feeding at scrum-time, and John Eales suggesting the All Blacks are still struggling to rebuild after the World Cup. Nothing original in that lot, and nothing about the coaches to say.

There's no head-to-head form to go on. Deans became coach in Canterbury only after Henry had left the Blues for Wales' green valleys on his great redeeming mission. They've both been around for yonks, but only once have they coached opposite each other, when Deans' Canterbury ended Henry's Auckland's NPC dominance in Deans' first professional coaching season.

Both won Super Rugby titles - Henry only won fewer because he didn't hang around in the job as long. Both have pioneered teams and playing systems regarded as the greatest in their own sphere of time and competition. Just as Henry was hailed as Wales' 'Great Redeemer', so Deans is whipping up the Australian public into a frenzy after seven long years without silverware.

The only player to say anything even vaguely committal about the coaches this week has been Dan Carter, who has been tutored by both throughout virtually his entire career. Henry is a disciplinarian, we are told, who relies heavily on the advice from his ubiquitous assistants and gets his teams into shape quick-smart, while Deans is more the indulgent father who gradually builds up a strong rapport and gives his players more creative freedom.

It wasn't as if Australia conquered South Africa through creativity last week though. Belligerence and patience marked their build-up play, with Stirling Mortlock epitomising both in his try, and the quick hands that led to Lote Tuqiri's try a textbook display of clinical finishing. The Wallabies wanted to run, but couldn't, so they didn't. Whatever else it may have been, it was a mature display from a young team.

It will stand them in good stead against an All Black team possibly struggling to create as strong a collective soul and identity that the previous one had. The new faces look a little too uncertain - bar Richard Kahui - and the old faces look weaker without their former buddies. None of the new wingers command awe in the way Rokocoko and Howlett did. The back-row trio isn't the same without Jerry Collins.

The loss of that collective detracts just as much from the performance as any loss of player does. John Eales was bang-on when he said the team had lost its aura of invincibility; the scales have fallen from the eyes of opponents, and suddenly there are holes and cracks in defence where there had been none before.

It's going to take time for the new faces to bed in and create the formidable collective unit that the 2007 World Cup All Black edition was. How much time is uncertain, but Graham Henry may not have as much time as the squad does.

Someone will win. But it has struck many neutrals around that both are probably in the right job right now. Australia have laboured under a lack of grunt for a long time, yet still been restricted to a safety-first gameplan under John Connolly and Eddie Jones. New Zealand need to rebuild not only the squad, but also the tightness of the squad that went to France.

It has worked in bits, but with talents like Matt Giteau, Berrick Barnes and many others now snapping around the fringes of the Wallaby team, perhaps Australia needed a Deans to free up the youth and let them showcase, rather than a Henry to keep them on the straight and narrow.

New Zealand's current state is so transitional that perhaps they needed a Henry to impose a heavy hand and iron will on the team, a focus for the squad to bind to and develop from over the next four years rather than a Deans to let them run free before they were ready.

Such is the black and white nature of it all, that matters like that might be overlooked by those salivating with the hunger of success. But whoever loses on Saturday ought to be compensated with a measure of patience: there's no guarantee it would have worked out any other way.

Ones to watch:

For Australia: Luke Burgess has been covered in column inches this week, some from his opposition trying to mess with his mind about put-ins, others from journalists indulging in some patient criticism of his game, and no small few from Burgess demanding better of himself. Let's assume he puts in straight, and that the journalists are on his side. Will he now give himself the display he is so desperately seeking?

For New Zealand: Daniel Braid is back after a five-year absence. Injuries have cost him an occasional All Black place down the years, not to mention the fact that he fills the same jersey occupied by Richie McCaw. But his consistency in the Blues jersey this season has seen him turn his way over to the back-up number seven jersey. Australia were brilliant at the breakdown last week, so Braid's job is to nullify that threat and make Australia think again.

Head to head: Ryan Cross v Richard Kahui. Debutants up against each other (more or less) in the centre, both with a place to fight for. Kahui is jostling for position with Conrad Smith but was identified by Graham Henry as being the right man for this job. Cross' strong running and Rugby League defence should minimise the effect of the loss of Stirling Mortlock, but will he carry the same attacking threat?

Recent results:

2007 New Zealand won 26-12 in Auckland
2007 Australia won 20-15 in Melbourne
2006 New Zealand won 34-27 in Auckland
2006 New Zealand won 13-9 in Brisbane
2006 New Zealand won 32-12 in Christchurch
2005 New Zealand won 34-24 in Auckland
2005 New Zealand won 30-13 in Sydney
2004 Australia won 23-18 in Sydney
2004 New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington
2003 Australia won 22-10 in Sydney (RWC)
2003 New Zealand won 21-17 in Auckland
2003 New Zealand won 50-21 in Sydney
2002 Australia won 16-14 in Sydney
2002 New Zealand won 12-6 in Christchurch
2001 Australia won 29-26 in Sydney
2001 Australia won 23-15 in Dunedin

Prediction: Australia were so good at the breakdown and in defence last week, I have been convinced. A long flight home for New Zealand. Australia by four points.

The teams:

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith (c), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Daniel Vickerman, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Timana Tahu, 22 Drew Mitchell.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Anthony Tuitavake, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Rodney So'oialo (c), 5 Ali Willliams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Sione Lauaki, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Conrad Smith.

Date: Saturday, July 26
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 20.05 (10.05 GMT)
Weather: Clear, 10�C, a light breeze. Perfect!
Referee: Craig Joubert
Touch judges: Mark Lawrence, James Bolabiu
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman
Assessor: Steve Hilditch

By Danny Stephens