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Preview: South Africa v New Zealand

Friday 15th August 2008

New look locks: Matfield and Bekker will be key to South Africa's cause

It's hard to believe that just five weeks ago, we were talking about bad refereeing, cheap shots, spear tackles, cheating acusations, and even racism claims. It's also hard to believe that two and a half weeks ago, we were beginning to believe New Zealand's bolt was shot. But in a tournament with more twists and turns than a Bronx breakdancing troupe, that's been the case. What fun! It's been a brilliant Tri-Nations!

The All Blacks top the standings, but they're behind in real terms. They, and they alone, have had the humiliation of humiliations, suffered the ignominy of ignominies, been beset by the calamity of calamities. They - have - lost - at - home. A Catastrophe. Only if they win Saturday's match against South Africa in Cape Town will the wrong have been righted. Only then will they still have a shot at winning the tournament. Lose, and it's out of their hands, unless Australia can come to the rainbow nation and 'do a job'. It's all there for the All Blacks.

But it's all there for South Africa too. Their coach's metaphorical and philosophical assertions are washing over the South African public like water off a duck's back, not least because ducks themselves wouldn't have a bloody clue what he was on about, never mind South Africans. He must be doing something right because his team is doing the business for him, but nobody is convinced - nobody entirely understands how his tactics are working either. Everybody waits for the fall, instead of backing him. Shame, as they say in the Cape. He gets a rough deal.

And then there's Monty. The man whose propensity to foul things up on the field led to an Australian TV channel awarding a 'Percy' for the mistake of the week, and the man whose propensity for occasional breathtaking brilliance led the the same TV channel awarding the 'Anti-Percy' for the moment of genius of the week. The man who has collected both awards with his usual grace. The man who has shattered every Springbok record going. Percy the kicker, Percy the full-back, Percy the surfer boy, Percy the softly-spoken, Percy the absurdly good-looking, if one disturbingly male fan who wrote in this week is to be believed. Percy the untouchable. And now, finally, in front of his home crowd, Percy the centurion.

There are eight other players who have have managed the 100-cap feat, but to do it playing for South Africa, with all the politics and upheavals and machinations and plotting and back-stabbing and haranguing and constant misery at every level from back-room staff to SARU Presidency itself, is a unique and inimitable achievement.

We were reminded even this week of how difficult it can be to enjoy the good things in South African rugby, with a junior politician accusing De Villiers of caving in to sentimentality over form when handing Monty his gong. What?

It is one selection De Villiers has obviously got right, just as he got it right in Dunedin. The All Blacks got their tactics spot on when thumping Australia in Auckland a fortnight ago, sending kicks and pressure down on the Wallaby back three. It's fair to assume they'll probably try something similar here. Conrad Jantjes is not the man to deal with that at all.

De Villiers has got it right at scrum-half in picking Fourie du Preez as well, despite this ignorant meddler's whining. Ricky Januarie may have won the game in Dunedin, but he is not - never really will be - one to win in a match where street-wisdom will count for much. Balls and all breaks are for when you are behind, not for an opening gambit.

On paper, it's a handy team, and one that should be good enough to win. But the All Blacks are over their blips, and are looking ominously calm - and confidently open and friendly - in the build-up.

Having re-discovered the joys of winning rugby as well as running rugby, we await the moment when the new breed finds a way of combining both. There's a chance that this team could be the one to do it. It has the right elements out wide now, with Richard Kahui providing the necessary overall consistency on the wing, and Jimmy Cowan's display last time out was reminiscent of a certain Byron Kelleher. Richie McCaw is back and the back row is balanced again, and Brad Thorn's presence reinforces the front five. Tight up front, fiery in the middle, and dangerous out wide... it's a fine-looking team.

South Africa have all of that. But when it comes down to the fineries, when both teams nail the basics perfectly and you need that special something to change the game, New Zealand just have a little bit more. They also now have the bit between their teeth, where the Boks are coming off a four-week break. It's the tiny margins like that which will make the difference tomorrow, and which will add another twist to this superb tournament.

Ones to watch:

For South Africa: Percy Montgomery wins his hundredth cap, but his role in keeping things calm from the back is essential to any winning momentum the Boks can develop.

For New Zealand: Jimmy Cowan is going to have to be a nuisance in the way Andy Ellis hasn't quite mastered yet. Cowan was excellent against Australia, choosing the right options far more often than not, and if he can do it here and cause his opposition the same problems, you'd think a longer stint in the number nine shirt was beckoning.

Head to head: Lots of talk about the back row and the breakdown contest this week, but in a match likely to be fought with plenty of territorial kicking, the second row battle at the line-out will be paramount. Can Victor Matfield boss things without Bakkies Botha, or will the return of Brad Thorn help Ali Williams to rule the skies. What a prospect!

Recent results:

2008 South Africa won 30-28 in Dunedin
2008 New Zealand won 19-8 in Wellington
2007 New Zealand won 33-6 in Christchurch
2007 New Zealand won 26-21 in Durban
2006 South Africa won 21-20 in Rustenburg
2006 New Zealand won 45-26 in Pretoria
2006 New Zealand won 35-17 in Wellington
2005 New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2005 South Africa won 22-16 in Cape Town
2004 South Africa won 40-26 in Johannesburg
2004 New Zealand won 23-21 in Christchurch
2003 New Zealand won 29-9 in Sydney (RWC)
2003 New Zealand won 19-11 in Dunedin
2003 New Zealand won 52-16 in Pretoria
2002 New Zealand won 30-23 in Durban
2002 New Zealand won 41-20 in Wellington
2001 New Zealand won 26-15 in Auckland
2001 New Zealand won 12-3 in Cape Town

Prediction: In a season of twists and turns, this could be the series leveller. New Zealand by three points.

The teams:

South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Andries Bekker, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Brian Mujati, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Enrico Januarie, 21 Francois Steyn, 22 Conrad Jantjes.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Willliams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava.

Date: Saturday August 16
Venue: Newlands, Cape Town
Kick-off: 15:00 (14:00 BST)
Weather: Cloudy, fresh southerly breeze, mainly dry but damp underfoot, 16�C
Referee: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Touch judges: Wayne Barnes (England), James Leckie (Australia)
Television match official: Geoff Warren (England)

By Danny Stephens