News

Preview: South Africa v Australia

Friday 29th August 2008

Juan Smith (left): Still trying to find his place in the new set-up

As South Africa limp into their final home match of the 2008 Tri-Nations in an obvious state of disarray, it might be worthwhile turning attentions to their opposition this Saturday.

For while Peter de Villiers fills up the column inches with one-liners as amusing as they are bemusing, Robbie Deans is quietly filling up Australia with a stock of players that ought to be setting serious ambitions of global domination in 2011.

Australian rugby is in rude health. Despite the eventual failure of the U20 team at the recent Junior World Championship, there were a host of names involved who are already either commanding or demanding regular starting spots in their Super 14 franchises.

A look at Saturday's starting line-up also shows an exuberant vein of relative youth running through the side. The large proportion of Saturday's starting line-up is in its early to mid-twenties, meaning that come New Zealand time (and assuming it sticks together) it will be a collection of experienced heads full of leadership, and bolstered by the likes of, say, Luke Burgess, Kurtley Beale, Quade Cooper, Sam Wykes, David Pocock, Richard Brown, etc. etc.

It's very hard to draw comparisons now as the sport's landscape has changed considerably in between, but there are parallels to be drawn between the above paragraph and a retrospective look at the way England's 2003 side developed.

Deans can make changes without visibly weakening the side too, just as Woodward often could and Graham Henry certainly could. Phil Waugh for George Smith? Check. Timana Tahu for Berrick Barnes? Check. Adam Ashley-Cooper for Drew Mitchell? Check. Tatafu Polota-Nau for Stephen Moore? Check. The only problem Deans has looming on the horizon is of having too much talent at his disposal. Maybe he'll end up asking Graham Henry for rotation policy hints!

Moreover, Deans has knitted the team tightly together. Any rampant ego is at a premium, any thought of a divine right to victory is nowhere in sight, in fact, any sign of trouble is noticeably absent. Defeat in Auckland has been taken on the chin, quietly forgotten and learned from.

It seems almost to not matter right now what the result is, as long as the improvement in the togetherness and on-field decision-making is there and tangible - something else manifestly apparent in the early days of Sir Clive Woodward's England team.

A sterner test awaits them than this in next month's Tri-Nations decider, but a win in Johannesburg - a first for 46 years - would go a long way to making them favourites to take the All Blacks in Brisbane and take their first Tri-Nations crown for seven years. With no sign of tactical alteration in either camp, Australia have to start as favourites this weekend, and going on form that would make them favourites in Suncorp Stadium as well.

It's going to be tougher than last week though. Durban is not the Highveld, and the Boks will have that advantage to add to their desperation to salvage something from their car crash of a season. Perhaps the increased pace of the game will help them in the last 20 minutes when tactics become secondary to energy reserves in the thinner air.

They'll take any advantage they can get, you would think. De Villiers shows no sign of caving into common sense regarding selection and gameplay (or press conferences: "Maybe our fire wasn't hot enough last week, maybe we didn't have the right pots and pans" - what?), and the players are frustrated.

Not one has gone on record as saying they think this hotch-potch expansive game will actually work, all they say is that they'll try their best. Unfortunately, without a down-to-earth sense of direction, they are unable to really do that, which for South African players and fans alike, is becoming the most frustrating aspect of all.

Ones to watch:

For South Africa: Pierre Spies' threat has been virtually nullified within the De Villiers game. He has been anonymous for long periods, occasionally popping up to make a trademark bullocking run, but all too often being caught up in the action in places where he just shouldn't be. Most called for the inclusion of Joe van Niekerk at number eight this week, but De Villiers has stuck with Spies. Can the big man answer his critics and find his role?

For Australia: Timana Tahu's inclusion is one of the changes Deans has made, none of which really appear to weaken the side. A rugby league convert, he will pose more of a physical line-piercing threat to Jean de Villiers than the guile of Berrick Barnes did, but will he be able to back up Matt Giteau as ably? Going on last week's evidence, possibly, but 80 minutes is different to 20.

Head to head: Rocky Elsom v Juan Smith. The openside battle is always going to be key, but as the speed of the game increases, so the blindside battle increases in intensity and importance as well. Smith, like Spies, appears to be lost within the expanses of his coach's game, while Elsom is providing Australia with go-forward ball, line-out ball, turnover ball, and once in a while, try-scoring ball as well. Smith was one of the players of the World Cup, and it is almost a benchmark of how the South Africa team is misfiring to see how Elsom is currently eclipsing him.

Recent results:

2008 Australia won 27-15 in Durban
2008 Australia won 16-9 in Perth
2007 Australia won 25-17 in Sydney
2007 South Africa won 22-19 in Cape Town
2006 South Africa won 24-16 in Jo'burg
2006 Australia won 20-18 in Sydney
2006 Australia won 49-0 in Brisbane
2005 South Africa won 22-19 in Perth
2005 South Africa won 22-16 in Pretoria
2005 South Africa won 33-20 in Jo'burg
2005 Australia won 30-12 in Sydney
2004 South Africa won 23-19 in Durban
2004 Australia won 30-26 in Perth
2003 Australia won 29-9 in Brisbane
2003 South Africa won 26-22 in Cape Town
2002 South Africa won 33-31 in Jo'burg
2002 Australia won 38-27 in Brisbane

Prediction: Sunny blue skies etc., but a deep deep depression is expected over central Johannesburg by about 5pm local time on Saturday. Australia by eight points.

The teams:

South Africa: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Percy Montgomery.

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Timana Tahu,11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Sam Cordingley, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Hugh McMeniman, 4 James Horwill, 3 Matt Dunning, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Al Baxter, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 George Smith, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Drew Mitchell.

Date: Saturday, August 30
Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 15:00 (13:00 GMT)
Weather: Sunny and hot, 29�C, with a fresh north-westerly breeze.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand), Rob Debney (England)
Television match official: Romain Poite (France)
Assessor: Bob Francis (New Zealand)

By Danny Stephens