RUGBY WORLD CUP

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Can anyone stop New Zealand?

Monday 21st May 2007

Well, there are outside bets. South Africa, Ireland, France... Australia are never discountable.

But the Rugby World Cup is New Zealand's for the losing in France this year, the team which has won 19 out of 20 Tests over the past two years, the team with 45-odd interchangeable players, the team whose players are so sought-after that English and French clubs are breaking the banks to sign.

South Africa are probably closest to them. Jake White's size-only policy, coupled with his loyalty to the more mature players of the Rainbow Nation and his careful man-management through the Super 14 has left him almost injury-free heading into the Tri-Nations, and if New Zealand have a flaw, it is a possible susceptibility to bullying. South Africa have the bullies, but they will still need to deal with their politics, and a peculiar capacity for mental implosion.

Then there is the host nation. France have once again made their careful way to the Six Nations title, combining the tenacity of a last-minute win over Ireland with the flair of the final -day win over Scotland that brought them their crown.

Ireland, too, are contenders, but their major worry is a lack of depth within the squad. If Brian O'Driscoll or Paul O'Connell are injured, where is the back-up? New Zealand can call upon it with assured arrogance, Ireland with nervous anticipation.

The problem is, France and Ireland will spend eighty minutes of the first round knocking lumps off each other, and both teams will have whichever lumps remain knocked off them by Argentina. That's before the quarter-finals - and one of the teams will have to play the All Blacks then. Pity them.

Meanwhile, South Africa's path is reasonable: an under-firing England side in the pool stages, followed by either a lightweight Wales or Australia in the quarter-finals... and then One of Ireland, France, Argentina. And then bang! A repeat of the 1995 final! But who is your money on?

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